INTRODUCTION: THE FORMULA

There are myriad publications which attempt to explain the nature, purpose, and proper execution of war but how many are there that explain how to prevent war?  The process used to deter unacceptable behavior at all levels of interactive life provide a universal framework to successfully generate the motivation necessary for deterrence in order to quantifiably predict the actions of a decision maker when faced with the choices necessary to prevent conflict or war.

Deterrence is the generation of the appropriate motivation required for specific antagonists to intellectually alter their expected behavior or intentions because of their certainty that something more precious than the objective of their original behavior will be lost as a direct result of their failure to alter their behavior or intentions.

Within the following formulas are the simplest, complex factors for predicting deterrence:

If P^V(c_A/x_A) > O^V(e_∆/x_∆) then Σ_∆ = a_∆ = D

If P^V(c_A/x_A) < O^V(e_∆/x_∆) then Σ_∆ ≠ a_∆ ≠ D

One of the simplest factors concerning deterrence is that it either works or it fails.  In order for deterrence to be successful, the decision-maker/antagonist must have sufficient motivation to alter his behavior to one that is acceptable to the generation agent/protagonist.

If P^V(c_A/x_A) > O^V(e_∆/x_∆) then Σ_∆ = a_∆ = D

Here _A is the generation agent or the protagonist; _∆ is the decision-maker or the antagonist, whom the generation agent is attempting to motivate; c_A is antagonist’s perception of the protagonist’s communication as to the certainty of the antagonist’s guaranteed loss; P^V is the antagonist’s value placed on a particular precious possession; x is any contextual factors that influence the protagonist or the antagonist as differentiated by the appropriate _A or _∆; e_∆ is the protagonist’s perception of an expected action or behavior of the antagonist which the protagonist is attempting to deter; O^V is the antagonist’s value of achieving a particular objective; Σ_∆ is the motivation generated for a antagonist to alter their behavior; a_∆ is an action of a antagonist that is acceptable to the protagonist, in terms of behavior and timeliness; D is deterrence, the objective of the generation agent.

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Chapter 1: The Players